Euro-Usd

Yes, the signal it is not clear enough, but may be the next coming days we will understand. This could be more fuel to the market rally, (if it breaks the channel).

EURO-USD weekly chart - Fibo's: 

EURO-USD daily chart - Fibo's: 

Let's see what's happening in the FXE:

This week Watchlist

The past week we saw a big down movement in the major world indexes. The Obama's proposal to reform the banks "to big to fail" and the announcement of China's government to put limits on the activities of the banks had been the "reasons" that the media use to justify these movements.

I am bearish in the SP500 (short term), so if I buy any of this stocks (not the UUP) I will use tighten stops loss.

For this week, I have these in my watchlist. Notice that I am using the 9, 22 and 35 EMA's to follow trend.

UUP: the EMA's had confirmed the uptrend. Now I am waiting for an entry point.

MCD:

AA:

GE:

PG:

UUP - Elliot wave count

I am following this elliot wave pattern. I think the US dollar is bullish since the last month, if we use the EMA'a (9, 22 & 50) as a guide.
This is in line with the CRB index measured in euros, which I will explain in the next post.

In the begining of the correction?

Continuing with the post "DOW: Green Monday?", now I think a correction is very likely. Not necessarily tomorrow, because we need some confirmations, but the process is in development. We have some sell signals.

In the short term:

First, look at the UUP (BULL US Dollar index ETF). If we look at the moving averages that I use to track trend (when the 22 EMA cross the 100 SMA in the 15 minutes frequency chart, and is confirmed by the price, we have a signal), they are showing a change in trend. In addition, we can notice the bullish divergences. This does not mean that the indexes are going to fall from here, but they could begin to move sideways. This is not good for commodities and latin-american indexes.




Then, we have the BUY signal in the VIX. It is the same signal as the one in the UUP. Look that the charts, they are very similar.


This scenario is right, if we suppose that the markets are going to maintain the negative correlation with the dollar that they had until today.

Finally, if we look at the indexes, it is interesting to notice that we do not have a sell signal yet. Then, It is early to short the market (in my humble opinion). We need a confirmation in the SPY.


Gaining more perspective, here some daily charts:

SPY:



UUP:



QQQQ:


DOW JONES TRANSPORT:




Ticker sense: (bullish)

http://tickersense.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c924353ef0115723ba8d7970b-popup

In my opinion, we should look at the 950 level in the S & P 500. This is the key support.