Monday, May 25, 2009


We will compare the 2003 bottom, with the 2009 lows (we do not know if we have a bottom yet). For the comparison, we can use the MACD combined with the Positive Volume Index (PVI, with the 200 SMA in red), and the 200 SMA in the Dow Jones (in yellow). For those who are not familiar with the Positive Volume Index:


1) If today's Volume > yesterday's volume then:

PVI = yesterday's PVI + (today's close - yesterday's close)/[yesterday's close × yesterday's PVI]

2) If today's volume < yesterday's volume then:

PVI = yesterday's PVI

This indicator links the behavior of volume and price.
It can identify a rise in volumes synchronized with a rise in prices. The PVI or Positive Volume Index, detects only the rising signals contrary to the Negative Volume Indicator.
Less informed investors follow the rise in volumes and are in the market.
On the contrary when volume decrease the more informed investors are in the market.
The market is bullish when the two indicators rise above their moving averages.

Now, let´s see how this indicator worked out in 2003:

DOW JONES 2003 bottom:

DOW JONES 2009 lows:

Could it work in the 2009 lows?


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