Thursday, July 2, 2009

Dow Jones / S & P 500

Well, the month had finished and it is a good moment to try to see what can we expect for the next month, without making futurology. In the S & P 500, we can consider 880 and 780 as the key levels. Here, the 23.6% and 61.8% fibonacci retracements are the supports in case the head and shoulder patterns is confirmed. Meanwhile, is a good strategy Wait & See, until the market defines the course. If we look at some indicators (see the charts below, specially the weekly chart of the S & P500), we could consider that the market had already define the trend (look the ADX).

In addition, if we relates this charts with the charts of the VIX, the conclusion is that the direction for the next month should be downward. An spike in the VIX is very likely from this levels. But.... be careful, because the majority of the blogs and financial sites that I am visiting see the Head and Shoulder pattern (pattern formed during may and June). When everybody see the same pattern, the market likes to do the opposite.

Look at the RSI. It was moving between 50 and 90 during all the rebound (from March until June 15). Now, it is moving below 50. This indicates a change in the trend. Also, pay attention to the Bollinger Bands. The central band had been broken.

S & P 500:

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is at 778. The key support is 880.

Dow Jones Industrial:

1 comment:

  1. Hola, lei tu post en el blog de Traderfeed q sigo hace mucho. Estoy empezando a operar, aunque hace mucho q sigo el tema trading en paralelo con el trabajo. Queria consultarte de tu experiencia, si vivis de esto y como te queres escribime a

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