First, look at the DJI monthly chart. In July, the 200 EMA cross the monthly 200 SMA. In addition, in the daily chart, we have the same resistance!. The 200 daily EMA.
DOW JONES Monthly Chart:
DOW JONES monthly chart with RSI, CMF, MACD & Stocastics:
Now looking at the 2002 bear market, we can see the same pattern. In my humble opinion, the reason of the recent movements of the market is shorts squeezes. And in the bottom of 2003, it looks like other short squeeze, to go down after.
DOW JONES 2002 bottom:
DOW JONES 2009 ......bottom?
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